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BizVerify |
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| Shanghai Donghuang Forging Co., Ltd. |
| Verified By : Huaxia D&B |
| Verified Date : 2011-11-22 |
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| Rays of recovery - Chinese trade figures positive |
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Reuters reported that China reported surprisingly strong trade figures on Wednesday, providing fresh evidence that the world's third largest economy is firmly on a recovery track and that global demand is improving too.
The General Administration of Customs said exports in September fell 15.2% from a year earlier, beating forecasts of a 21% fall while imports fell just 3.5% well short of expectations of a 15.3% decline.
Customs said indeed, after adjustments to take account of the number of working days in each month, exports rose 6.3% in September from August and imports rose 8.3%.
Mr Brian Jackson, an economist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong said the slower pace of decline was good news for China's recovery because growth this year has depended too much on the government's CNY 4 trillion stimulus package.
He said that "Stronger external demand will provide an alternative source of support for growth and provide scope for Beijing to start tightening policy gradually from early 2010."
With imports showing strength, China trade surplus fell to USD 12.9 billion last month from USD 15.7 billion in August. Markets had expected a figure of USD 17.0 billion.
Economists expect the year-on-year readings in exports to keep improving. Trade slumped after a shock to confidence from the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008, creating an increasingly favorable statistical base of comparison as 2009 wears on.
Nomura said it expected the YoY change in exports to turn positive by December. Barclays Capital said it could be as early as November.
Mr Dong Tao chief China economist for Credit Suisse in Hong Kong "Overall, export performance will be much better in the months to come. I think it's going to be sustainable and it's going to accelerate. There are some rush orders coming to China for Christmas, so I expect probably a pretty strong rebound in November and December."
(Sourced from Reuters)
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